In this presentation we describe a new, integrative approach for pre-Milestone A cost estimation, which we call QUELCE (Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation). QUELCE synthesizes scenario building, Bayesian belief network (BBN) modeling and Monte Carlo simulation into an estimation method that quantifies uncertainties, allows subjective inputs, visually depicts influential relationships among change drivers and outputs, and assists with the explicit description and documentation underlying an estimate.
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