Air Force Research Laboratory Innovation – Pushing the Envelope in Analytical Wargaming


Posted: December 1, 2016 | By: Jaime J. Bestard


Analytical wargaming will help establish a foundation for investment decisions at appropriate levels of risk. Our national defense relies heavily on the success of our most advanced technologies in combat. Innovation is a key element of surprise in our strategic planning efforts. The Department of Defense continuously encourages innovative thinking and informed risk management. The Air Force and its scientific and technical innovation Enterprise are working toward a reinvigorated analytical wargaming capability. To support this objective, the AFRL is working to leverage its M&S used for technology development and apply it to augment wargame rigor. Analytical wargames will help bridge the traditional gaps between the operational and the scientific and technical communities when exploring the realm of the possible using advanced technology concepts. Air Force leadership and AFRL strategic development planners will have increased confidence when making investment decisions in this fiscally constrained and increasingly complex geopolitical environment.


The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily representative of those of the United States Air Force or the Department of Defense.


  1. e.g., speed, range, weight, fuel capacity, payload
  2. e.g., PS – probability of survival, PK – probability of kill, PK|H – probability of kill given a hit


  1. Ball, Robert E. 2003. The Fundamentals of Aircraft Combat Survivability Analysis and Design. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.
  2. Davis, Paul K., and Amy Henninger. 2007. Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation. Occasional Paper, Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.
  3. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics. 2009. DoD Modeling and Simulation (M&S) Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A). Instruction, Department of Defense.
  4. Work, Robert O. 2015. War on the Rocks. December 8.

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